Laboratory experiments were conducted on laboratory-made tight cores to investigate the stress-dependent permeability hysteresis of tight reservoirs during pressure loading and unloading process. Based on experiment r...Laboratory experiments were conducted on laboratory-made tight cores to investigate the stress-dependent permeability hysteresis of tight reservoirs during pressure loading and unloading process. Based on experiment results, and Hertz contact deformation principle, considering arrangement and deformation of rock particles, a quantitative stress dependent permeability hysteresis theoretical model for tight reservoirs was established to provide quantitative analysis for permeability loss. The model was validated by comparing model calculated results and experimental results. The research results show that during the early pressure-loading period, structural deformation and primary deformation worked together, rock permeability reduced dramatically with increasing effective stress. When the effective stress reached a certain value, the structural deformation became stable while the primary deformation continued;the permeability variation tended to be smooth and steady. In the pressure unloading process, the primary deformation recovered with the decreasing effective stress, while the structural deformation could not. The permeability thus could not fully recover, and the stress-dependent hysteresis was obvious.展开更多
Changes in regional moisture patterns under the impact of climate change are an important focus for science. Based on the five global climate models(GCMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Pha...Changes in regional moisture patterns under the impact of climate change are an important focus for science. Based on the five global climate models(GCMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5), this paper projects trends in the area of arid/humid climate regions of China over the next 100 years. It also identifies the regions of arid/humid patterns change and analyzes their temperature sensitivity of responses. Results show that future change will be characterized by a significant contraction in the humid region and an expansion of arid/humid transition zones. In particular, the sub-humid region will expand by 28.69% in the long term(2070–2099) relative to the baseline period(1981–2010). Under 2℃ and 4℃ warming, the area of the arid/humid transition zones is projected to increase from 10.17% to 13.72% of the total of China. The humid region south of the Huaihe River Basin, which is affected mainly by a future increase in evapotranspiration, will retreat southward and change to a sub-humid region. In general, the sensitivity of responses of arid/humid patterns to climate change in China will intensify with accelerating global warming.展开更多
This paper comprehensively analyzes the characteristics and cause of the inshore intensification of super typhoon 'Hato', the 13 th super typhoon in 2017. The aspects of typhoon structure, evolution of large-s...This paper comprehensively analyzes the characteristics and cause of the inshore intensification of super typhoon 'Hato', the 13 th super typhoon in 2017. The aspects of typhoon structure, evolution of large-scale circulation and physical quantity field are analyzed using observation data from the Guangdong Automatic Station, Shenzhen Doppler Radar data, NCEP 1°×1° reanalysis data, NCEP 0.25°×0.25° sea surface temperature(SST) data, etc.Additionally, in order to investigate the influence of SST change on the intensity of 'Hato', the WRF model and ECMWF 0.125°×0.125° reanalysis data are combined to conduct 3 sensitivity tests on'Hato'. The results show that the favorable conditions for inshore intensification of 'Hato'included the strengthening and westward extension of the subtropical high, continuous increase of low level moisture transport, an anomalous warm SST area north of 20°N in the South China Sea, an extreme divergence value in the northern South China Sea exceeding 6 ×10-5 s-1, and vertical environmental wind shear between 1.1 m/s-4.8 m/s. The intensity of'Hato'was very sensitive to changes in SST. When the SST rose or dropped by 2℃, the minimum central pressure of the typhoon changed by about 13 hPa or 11 hPa,respectively. SST indirectly influenced the intensity of the typhoon through affecting latent heat transport and sensible heat transport.展开更多
To determine the grid resolutions of the WRF model in the typhoon simulation,some sensitivity analysis of horizontal and vertical resolutions in different conditions has been carried out.Different horizontal resolutio...To determine the grid resolutions of the WRF model in the typhoon simulation,some sensitivity analysis of horizontal and vertical resolutions in different conditions has been carried out.Different horizontal resolutions(5,10,20,30 km),nesting grids(15 and 5 km),different vertical resolutions(35-layers,28-layers,20-layers)and different top maximum pressures(1 000,2 000,3 500,5 000 Pa)had been used in the mesoscale numerical model WRF to simulate the Typhoon Kai-tak.The simulation results of typhoon track,wind speed and sea level pressure at different horizontal and vertical resolutions have been compared and analyzed.The horizontal and vertical resolutions of the model have limited effect on the simulation effect of the typhoon track.Different horizontal and vertical resolutions have obvious effects on typhoon strength(defined by wind speed)and intensity(defined by sea level pressure,SLP),especially for sea level pressure.The typhoon intensity simulated by the high-resolution model is closer to the real situation and the nesting grids can improve computational accuracy and efficiency.The simulation results affected by vertical resolution using 35-layers is better than the simulation results using 20-layers and 28-layers simulations.Through comparison and analysis,the horizontal and vertical resolutions of WRF model are finally determined as follows:the two-way nesting grid of 15 and 5 km is comprehensively determined,and the vertical layers is 35-layers,the top maximum pressure is 2 000 Pa.展开更多
IPC WIFI b 11M吞吐量情况下灵敏度差,PCB板上有25mm×20mm分割地,分割地具有天线效应,按小环天线理论计算,远场区圆环和方环天线效应相同。推出电小环天线电场强度,并将电小环天线电场强度计算结果代入天线功率通量密度,并根据天...IPC WIFI b 11M吞吐量情况下灵敏度差,PCB板上有25mm×20mm分割地,分割地具有天线效应,按小环天线理论计算,远场区圆环和方环天线效应相同。推出电小环天线电场强度,并将电小环天线电场强度计算结果代入天线功率通量密度,并根据天线功率通量密度计算分割地到测量点发射功率,得到干扰强度。分割地与大地临近耦合,分割地耦合出去能量大部分被地吸收,但剩下能量还是能干扰到接收机接收接收。展开更多
Integration system is used to denote practices that combine systematic use of the land and technologies,in which forest species are used in conjunction with herbaceous plants and/or animals respecting a spatial or tem...Integration system is used to denote practices that combine systematic use of the land and technologies,in which forest species are used in conjunction with herbaceous plants and/or animals respecting a spatial or temporal arrangement.Knowing that this type of production seeks to balance ecological and economic factors,it is important to understand the financial benefits and risks involved in this production.Financial analysis,therefore,acts as an important analysis tool to foster this type of activity.The paper aimed to conduct analysis of investment risk of a crop-livestock-forestry system deployed in Brazil,comparing two different production scenarios,scenario I with 17 ha and scenario II with 25 ha.The risk analysis was performed using the Monte Carlo method and sensitivity analysis(by varying the factors:the discount rate,productivity and price).A cash flow was elaborated based on annual cost and revenues data of the agricultural crops(corn and soybeans),livestock and eucalyptus,using an interest rate of 6%per year.The results indicated that the optimal age for cutting the eucalyptus was at seven years on both scenarios;scenario I had better return on investment using deterministic and probabilistic methods;scenario I presents higher investments risks;there is a negative relation between discount rate and annualized net present value(ANPV);increased productivity of crops provides greater profitability to the system;there has been an increase in the economic viability of the system,as value has been added to the products.Monte Carlo method and the sensitivity analysis showed to be an appropriate tool to analyze the risk of crop-livestock-forestry systems,making it possible to foresee how the project will respond to possible scenarios.展开更多
基金Supported by the China National Science and Technology Major Project(2016ZX05037-003,2017ZX05049-003).
文摘Laboratory experiments were conducted on laboratory-made tight cores to investigate the stress-dependent permeability hysteresis of tight reservoirs during pressure loading and unloading process. Based on experiment results, and Hertz contact deformation principle, considering arrangement and deformation of rock particles, a quantitative stress dependent permeability hysteresis theoretical model for tight reservoirs was established to provide quantitative analysis for permeability loss. The model was validated by comparing model calculated results and experimental results. The research results show that during the early pressure-loading period, structural deformation and primary deformation worked together, rock permeability reduced dramatically with increasing effective stress. When the effective stress reached a certain value, the structural deformation became stable while the primary deformation continued;the permeability variation tended to be smooth and steady. In the pressure unloading process, the primary deformation recovered with the decreasing effective stress, while the structural deformation could not. The permeability thus could not fully recover, and the stress-dependent hysteresis was obvious.
基金National Key Research and Development Program of China,No.2017YFC1502904National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41530749,No.41571043.
文摘Changes in regional moisture patterns under the impact of climate change are an important focus for science. Based on the five global climate models(GCMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5), this paper projects trends in the area of arid/humid climate regions of China over the next 100 years. It also identifies the regions of arid/humid patterns change and analyzes their temperature sensitivity of responses. Results show that future change will be characterized by a significant contraction in the humid region and an expansion of arid/humid transition zones. In particular, the sub-humid region will expand by 28.69% in the long term(2070–2099) relative to the baseline period(1981–2010). Under 2℃ and 4℃ warming, the area of the arid/humid transition zones is projected to increase from 10.17% to 13.72% of the total of China. The humid region south of the Huaihe River Basin, which is affected mainly by a future increase in evapotranspiration, will retreat southward and change to a sub-humid region. In general, the sensitivity of responses of arid/humid patterns to climate change in China will intensify with accelerating global warming.
基金National Key Research and Development Project(2017YFC1501701)Guangdong Provincial Science and Technology Plan Project(2015B020217001)+2 种基金Development Program of China(973 Program)(2015CB452802)Open Foundation Project of State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather(2018LASW-B15)National Natural Science Foundation of China Youth Project(41705020,41705120).
文摘This paper comprehensively analyzes the characteristics and cause of the inshore intensification of super typhoon 'Hato', the 13 th super typhoon in 2017. The aspects of typhoon structure, evolution of large-scale circulation and physical quantity field are analyzed using observation data from the Guangdong Automatic Station, Shenzhen Doppler Radar data, NCEP 1°×1° reanalysis data, NCEP 0.25°×0.25° sea surface temperature(SST) data, etc.Additionally, in order to investigate the influence of SST change on the intensity of 'Hato', the WRF model and ECMWF 0.125°×0.125° reanalysis data are combined to conduct 3 sensitivity tests on'Hato'. The results show that the favorable conditions for inshore intensification of 'Hato'included the strengthening and westward extension of the subtropical high, continuous increase of low level moisture transport, an anomalous warm SST area north of 20°N in the South China Sea, an extreme divergence value in the northern South China Sea exceeding 6 ×10-5 s-1, and vertical environmental wind shear between 1.1 m/s-4.8 m/s. The intensity of'Hato'was very sensitive to changes in SST. When the SST rose or dropped by 2℃, the minimum central pressure of the typhoon changed by about 13 hPa or 11 hPa,respectively. SST indirectly influenced the intensity of the typhoon through affecting latent heat transport and sensible heat transport.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 51809023,51839002 and 51879015the Open Research Foundation of the Key Laboratory of the Pearl River Estuarine Dynamics and Associated Process Regulation,the Ministry of Water Resources under contract No.2018KJ03.
文摘To determine the grid resolutions of the WRF model in the typhoon simulation,some sensitivity analysis of horizontal and vertical resolutions in different conditions has been carried out.Different horizontal resolutions(5,10,20,30 km),nesting grids(15 and 5 km),different vertical resolutions(35-layers,28-layers,20-layers)and different top maximum pressures(1 000,2 000,3 500,5 000 Pa)had been used in the mesoscale numerical model WRF to simulate the Typhoon Kai-tak.The simulation results of typhoon track,wind speed and sea level pressure at different horizontal and vertical resolutions have been compared and analyzed.The horizontal and vertical resolutions of the model have limited effect on the simulation effect of the typhoon track.Different horizontal and vertical resolutions have obvious effects on typhoon strength(defined by wind speed)and intensity(defined by sea level pressure,SLP),especially for sea level pressure.The typhoon intensity simulated by the high-resolution model is closer to the real situation and the nesting grids can improve computational accuracy and efficiency.The simulation results affected by vertical resolution using 35-layers is better than the simulation results using 20-layers and 28-layers simulations.Through comparison and analysis,the horizontal and vertical resolutions of WRF model are finally determined as follows:the two-way nesting grid of 15 and 5 km is comprehensively determined,and the vertical layers is 35-layers,the top maximum pressure is 2 000 Pa.
文摘IPC WIFI b 11M吞吐量情况下灵敏度差,PCB板上有25mm×20mm分割地,分割地具有天线效应,按小环天线理论计算,远场区圆环和方环天线效应相同。推出电小环天线电场强度,并将电小环天线电场强度计算结果代入天线功率通量密度,并根据天线功率通量密度计算分割地到测量点发射功率,得到干扰强度。分割地与大地临近耦合,分割地耦合出去能量大部分被地吸收,但剩下能量还是能干扰到接收机接收接收。
文摘Integration system is used to denote practices that combine systematic use of the land and technologies,in which forest species are used in conjunction with herbaceous plants and/or animals respecting a spatial or temporal arrangement.Knowing that this type of production seeks to balance ecological and economic factors,it is important to understand the financial benefits and risks involved in this production.Financial analysis,therefore,acts as an important analysis tool to foster this type of activity.The paper aimed to conduct analysis of investment risk of a crop-livestock-forestry system deployed in Brazil,comparing two different production scenarios,scenario I with 17 ha and scenario II with 25 ha.The risk analysis was performed using the Monte Carlo method and sensitivity analysis(by varying the factors:the discount rate,productivity and price).A cash flow was elaborated based on annual cost and revenues data of the agricultural crops(corn and soybeans),livestock and eucalyptus,using an interest rate of 6%per year.The results indicated that the optimal age for cutting the eucalyptus was at seven years on both scenarios;scenario I had better return on investment using deterministic and probabilistic methods;scenario I presents higher investments risks;there is a negative relation between discount rate and annualized net present value(ANPV);increased productivity of crops provides greater profitability to the system;there has been an increase in the economic viability of the system,as value has been added to the products.Monte Carlo method and the sensitivity analysis showed to be an appropriate tool to analyze the risk of crop-livestock-forestry systems,making it possible to foresee how the project will respond to possible scenarios.