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“一带一路”倡议下海南与东盟十国贸易合作及发展潜力研究 认领 被引量:2

A Study on the Trade Cooperation and Development Potential Between Hainan and Ten ASEAN Members Underthe Belt and Road Initiative
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摘要 基于海南与东盟十国2009—2018年的相关数据,利用贸易结合度指数、显性比较优势指数、贸易互补性指数和贸易潜力模型对海南与东盟十国的贸易关系及贸易合作潜力进行实证分析。结果表明,海南与新加坡、菲律宾、马来西亚、泰国、越南等国双向贸易关系保持紧密,与东盟其他国家双向贸易关系较为疏远;海南在SITC5、SITC0、SITC3上具有中等强度以上的国际竞争力;双方的SITC0、SITC3、SITC5等商品互补性强;海南与东盟十国的经济体量对双方的贸易总额产生的影响是正面的、显著的,距离对双方的贸易总额产生的影响是负面的;海南与柬埔寨、马来西亚、缅甸、新加坡、越南、文莱等国的贸易合作发展潜力较小,需要深挖,与菲律宾、泰国、印度尼西亚等国具有一定的贸易合作潜力,与老挝的贸易合作潜力巨大。 Based on the related data of Hainan and ten ASEAN members from 2009 to 2018,an empirical analysis is made on the trade relationships between Hainan and ten ASEAN members and their cooperation potential by means of trade integration index,revealed comparative advantage index,trade complementarity index and trade potential model.It is concluded that Hainan has close bilateral trade relationships with Singapore,the Philippines,Malaysia,Thailand and Vietnam,and is relatively distant in two-way trade relationships with other ASEAN countries.Moreover,Hainan’s international competitiveness is above medium in SITC5,SITC0,and SITC3,and it has strong bilateral complementarity in commodity trade in SITC0,SITC3 and SITC5.The economic size of Hainan and ten ASEAN members has positive and obvious impact on their total trade volume,while the geographical distance between them has a negative impact.The trade cooperation potential of Hainan with Cambodia,Malaysia,Myanmar,Singapore,Vietnam,and Brunei is small,which needs to be further explored.Hainan has certain trade cooperation potential with the Philippines,Thailand,and Indonesia,and it has huge trade cooperation potential with Laos.
作者 钱耀军 李娴 QIAN Yaojun;LI Xian(School of International Trade and Foreign Languages,Haikou University of Economics,Haikou 571127,China)
出处 《南海学刊》 2020年第2期91-101,共11页 The Journal of South China Sea Studies
基金 海南省教育厅高等学校科学研究项目(Hnky2018-71)。
关键词 海南 东盟十国 贸易结合度指数 贸易互补性指数 贸易引力模型 贸易潜力 Hainan Ten ASEAN Members trade integration index trade complementarity index trade gravity model trade potential
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