期刊文献+

SARIMA模型和季节趋势模型在手足口病发病率预测中的应用 预览

Application of SARIMA model and seasonal trend model to predict the incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease
在线阅读 下载PDF
分享 导出
摘要 目的比较自回归滑动平均求和季节乘积模型(SARIMA)和季节趋势模型对手足口病(HFMD)发病率的预测效能。方法利用荆州市2010—2015年的手足口病逐月发病率作为拟合数据,以2016年的逐月发病率作为预测数据,分别建立SARIMA模型和季节趋势模型后,根据2个模型的平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)、平均误差率(MER)、均方误差(MSE)和平均绝对误差(MAE)评价模型的效果。结果SARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12(不含常数项)拟合和预测的MAPE、MER、MSE、MAE为18.86%,25.47%,24.23,2.17和15.61%、16.71%、9.41、2.02;季节趋势模型拟合和预测的MAPE、MER、MSE和MAE为33.91%、39.48%、44.38、3.31和21.06%、20.32%、12.63、2.54。结论SARIMA模型拟合效果较好,预测精度更高,可应用于手足口病疫情的预测和预警。 Objective To compare the efficiency of multiple seasonal autoregressive moving average(SARIMA)model and seasonal trend model to predict the incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease(HFMD)in Jingzhou city.Methods HFMD monthly incidence data from 2010 to 2015 in Jingzhou city were used to fit models,the data from Dec 2016 were used for prediction.SARIMA model and seasonal trend model were established,whose effects were evaluated by comparison of mean absolute percentage error(MAPE),Mean Error Rate(MER),mean square error(MSE)and mean absolute error(MAE).Results The MAPE,MER,MSE and MAE fitted and predicted by SARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12(no constant)model were18.86%,25.47%,24.23,2.17 and 15.61%,16.71%,9.41,2.02;respectively.The MAPE,MER,MSE and MAE fitted and predicted by seasonal trend model were 33.91%,39.48%,44.38,3.31 and 21.06%,20.32%,12.63,2.54;respectively.Conclusion SARIMA model could be fitted more effectively with high predictive accuracy,which can be used for prediction and warning of HFMD epidemics.
作者 刘亚敏 刘天 李晓勇 LIU Ya-min;LIU Tian;LI Xiao-yong(Jingzhou Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine,Hubei Jinzhou 434000, China)
出处 《江苏预防医学》 CAS 2019年第2期150-152,共3页 Jiangsu Journal of Preventive Medicine
关键词 SARIMA模型 季节趋势模型 预测 手足口病 SARIMA Model Seasonal trend model Forecasting Hand,foot and mouth disease
作者简介 刘亚敏(1976—),女,湖北省荆州人,主治医师,主要从事儿童保健和传染病管理工作;通讯作者:李晓勇,副主任药师,E-mail:jzmygh1991@163.com.
  • 相关文献
投稿分析

相关作者

内容加载中请稍等...

相关机构

内容加载中请稍等...

相关主题

内容加载中请稍等...

浏览历史

内容加载中请稍等...
;
使用帮助 返回顶部 意见反馈