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浙江省五个鼠疫重点监测县(市)鼠疫风险评估及防控对策研究 被引量:3

Risk assessments and control strategies of plague in five key surveillance counties,Zhejiang province
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摘要 目的 分析浙江省5个鼠疫重点监测县(市)鼠疫流行情况,并评估鼠疫发生风险。方法 以浙江省鼠疫流行较为严重的庆元县、龙泉市、义乌市、文成县、瑞安市等5个监测点作为风险评估对象,每个县(市)在其发生过鼠疫流行的乡(镇),设立至少1个固定监测点和1-4个流动监测点开展监测。收集这5个县(市)1995—2014年鼠疫监测中获得的室内鼠密度、室内黄胸鼠密度、鼠体印鼠客蚤指数、黄胸鼠印鼠客蚤指数等数据,并对171 201只鼠肝脾进行鼠疫耶尔森菌(鼠疫菌)分离培养,对228 775份鼠血清进行鼠疫F1抗体检测。采用Borda 序值法和改良德尔菲法对5个县(市)的鼠疫发生风险进行评估,计算风险分值(Pf)。结果 庆元县、龙泉市、义乌市、文成县、瑞安市室内鼠密度分别为1.58%-5.50%、1.13%-9.76%、0.56%-3.67%、2.83%-16.08%、7.16%-15.96%,室内黄胸鼠密度分别为0.08%-2.23%、0-2.02%、0-0.54%、0.71%-5.58%、0.55%-4.92%。庆元县和文成县鼠体印鼠客蚤指数分别为0.011-0.500和0.015-0.227,黄胸鼠印鼠客蚤指数分别为0.119-3.412和0.100-1.430,义乌市和瑞安市未监测到鼠体印鼠客蚤,龙泉市在5个年份中仅监测到很少的鼠体印鼠客蚤。5个县(市)均未分离到鼠疫菌。2005年在龙泉市和义乌市各检出1份和2份阳性鼠血清,阳性鼠均为黑线姬鼠。Borda 序值法评估结果显示,龙泉市、义乌市的Borda值均为321,高于其他3个地区;改良德尔菲法评估结果显示,5个县(市)均属于鼠疫发生风险较低地区,根据Pf值的高低排位,龙泉市、义乌市Pf值分别为0.314、0.292,高于其他3个地区(均为0.226)。结论 5个重点鼠疫监测县(市)黄胸鼠和印鼠客蚤的各项指标均较低;发生内源性鼠疫复燃的风险较低,但龙泉市和义乌市鼠疫发生的风险要高于其他县(市)。 Objective To analyze the epidemiology data on plague in five counties in Zhejiang province and to evaluate the risk of plague in theses areas. Methods We selected five monitoring stations as a risk assessment (Qingyuan county, Longquan city, Yiwu city, Wencheng county, and Ruian city) in Zhejiang province where the plague epidemic more serious in the history. At least one constant site and 1-4 variable sites where plague occurred in history were selected for monitoring. We collected the five counties (cities) surveillance data of indoor rat density, indoor Rattus flavipectus density, the Xenopsylla cheopis index of rat, the Xenopsylla cheopis index of Rattus flavipectus in 1995-2014. Isolation of Yersinia pestis was conducted among 171 201 liver samples and F1 antibody were detected among 228 775 serum samples. Risk matrix, Borda count method, and Delphi approach were conducted to assess risk of the plague of five counties (cities) in Zhejiang province. Results Indoor rat density in Qingyuan county, Longquan city, Yiwu city, Wencheng county, Ruian city was 1.58%-5.50%, 1.13%-9.76%, 0.56%-3.67%, 2.83%-16.08%, 7.16%-15.96%, respectively; Indoor Rattus flavipectus density of five counties (cities) was 0.08%-2.23%, 0-2.02%, 0-0.54%, 0.71%-5.58%, 0.55%-4.92%, respectively. The Xenopsylla cheopis index of rat in Qingyuan county and Wencheng county was 0.011-0.500 and 0.015-0.227 , respectively; The Xenopsylla cheopis index of Rattus flavipectus of Qingyuan county and Wencheng county was 0.119-3.412 and 0.100-1.430, respectively; Ruian City and Yiwu city cannot collected Xenopsylla cheopis, Long quan city only collected the Xenopsylla cheopis index of rat in the five years. Yersinia pestis were not isolated in five counties (cities).There were 3 Apodemus agrarius samples positive of plague F1 antibody test, in Longquan city and Yiwu city in 2005. Borda count method to assess the Longquan city, Yiwu (Borda point were both 321) plague risk was higher than three other regions; Delphi approach to eva
作者 石国祥 鞠成 张蓉 张政 孙继民 王淼若 张孝和 叶先明 朱志宏 邢建光 廖晓伟 陈直平 Shi Guoxiang,Ju Cheng ,Zhang Rong, Zhang Zheng, Sun Jimin, Wang Miaoruo, Zhang Xiaohe, Ye Xianming, Zhu Zhihong, Xing Jianguang, Liao Xiaowei, Chen Zhiping.(Department of Microbiological Inspection, Zhejiang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou 310051, China)
出处 《中华预防医学杂志》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2015年第10期896-900,共5页 Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine
基金 国家卫生行业科研专项(201202021)
关键词 鼠疫 危险 Borda序值法 德尔菲法 Plague Risk Borda count method Delphi approach
作者简介 通信作者:陈直平,zhpchen@cdc.zj.cn
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